CHICAGO — The Center for Exhibition Industry Research (CEIR) released its Q1 2024 Index, which reported further industry improvement through the start of the year with the CEIR Total Index rising 4.3% from a year ago and the Q1 2024 Index value reaching 92.3.
The Total Index is comprised of four components, Net Square Feet, Attendees, Exhibitors and Real Revenues. Compared to the 2019 benchmarks, Net Square Feet is up 0.3%, Attendees are just 3.4% below, Exhibitors are 11.2% lower and Real Revenues (adjusted for inflation) — the slowest metric to recover — are down 15.5%.
Net Square Feet has been the fastest-recovering metric in the Index.
“It suggests that companies that have exhibited during the pandemic are increasing their investment in the trade show channel by purchasing a larger footprint, which speaks to the value of channel for participating exhibitors. The CEIR Index finds that the NSF per exhibitor has increased indicating that exhibitors are choosing to purchase a larger footprint,” said Nancy Drapeau, IPC, Vice President of Research at CEIR. “That NSF has surpassed 2019 Q1 results is an exciting result, suggesting that the industry is on its way to full recovery. And that attendance is one of the best performing metrics is a good sign, as when attendance performs well, other metrics tend to follow in the future.”
Q1 performance shows improvement as it is reported 7.7% below its respective 2019 level, whereas it was down 32% in Q1 2022 and down 11.5% in 2023. Notably, 41.8% of all events in the Index sample have exceeded their pre-pandemic CEIR Total Index performance, up 7.3% from Q1 2023’s results.
Related. CEIR Q4 2023 Index Shows Continuing Strong Improvement
The Q1 2024 research also includes a look at hotel demand changes from Q1 of 2023, with demand for Upper Upscale and Luxury hotels seeing the only positive change at 4%. This category of hotels captures a large share of group meetings and conventions.
The change in hotel demand from Q1 2023 for Total U.S. demand is down 1.4%, Independents are down 4%, Economy and Midscale are down 4.5% and Upper midscale and Upscale are down the least at -0.4%.
The Index reports that the deceleration in GDP growth in the first quarter of the year could be impacting the hotel performance, with travelers being more budget-conscious due to inflation and higher interest rates.
“The CEIR forecast anticipated that the pace of recovery would enter a more measured stage once the initial resumption of activity had passed. Participation by exhibitors and attendees in trade show events takes time and advanced commitment,” Drapeau said. “That being said, we cannot undermine the effect of the overall performance of the economy on the performance of the CEIR index, where inflation and fears of a recession in 2023 hindered exhibition growth last year and a relatively sluggish economy at the beginning of 2024 led to only modest growth in the industry.”
CEIR also recently published the 2024 CEIR Index Report, which provides an analysis of the performance of the industry in 2023 as well as an outlook on the industry and economy for the next three years.
“In the coming quarters, many business investment decisions, including budgets for participation in trade shows, will be made in a context of still high interest rates and a slowing economy. Paying attention to which sectors are the most active in terms of hiring and trade show activity will remain important. Readers interested in understanding the outlook per sector are encouraged to download the Index report,” said Drapeau.
You can purchase the full report here.
Reach Nancy Drapeau at ndrapeau@ceir.org
