OXON HILL, Maryland — The Center for Exhibition Industry Research (CEIR) held its 2025 CEIR Predict Annual Exhibition Industry Outlook Conference at the MGM National Harbor Sept. 11-12. The program delivered on providing show organizers insights that will help them navigate the economic and geopolitical landscape in the end of 2025 and beyond.
“CEIR Predict once again brought together forward-thinking leaders to explore how evolving consumer behaviors, AI, and global shifts are redefining our industry. The consensus was clear — live, face-to-face experiences remain irreplaceable when they foster trust and collaboration,” said Marsha Flanagan, M.Ed., CEM, President and CEO of the International Association of Exhibitions and Events (IAEE)®. “Thank you to our speakers, partners, and sponsors for making this year’s Predict a success.”
Economic Updates and Outlooks
The conference kicked off with a presentation from Lindsey Piegza, Ph.D., Chief Economist and Managing Director at Stifel Nicolaus & Co., who gave deep insights into the state of the U.S. economy and what she thinks is next for the U.S. One of her key takeaways is that it is likely the Fed will take a “higher for longer” position on rates as inflation remains above its ideal goal of 2% and the labor market slows.
She also shared that with increased volatility month-month, consumers are buying less and there is a loss of momentum in business investments for the U.S. Piegza warns that business leaders should be more concerned with “stag-flation” than inflation because while there will be economic growth it will be at a reduced pace, and this will be driven by consumers, inflation and policy decisions around tariffs and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Adam Sacks, President of Tourism Economics, an Oxford Economics Company, hit the stage to give his outlook and analysis of the latest CEIR Index report. According to Sacks, the industry is seeing attendance recover nicely, but the decrease in exhibitor activity has caused revenues to lag. This overall stall in the Index was credited to the job market being the weakest it has been since the pandemic, and consumer sentiment going down and spending being put on hold.
And while Sacks predicts that interest rates will be higher for longer and business uncertainty will continue to be a risk to group travel, he is optimistic that the farther out you look from 2025, the more positive things look from an economic standpoint. He did warn, however, that tariffs are driving inflation up and more price increases are coming, with manufacturers hit the hardest by these policies.
Readying for Risks
In a session focused on navigating the ever-evolving geopolitical landscape, Jonathan Wood, Principal at Control Risks, shared the four main flash points he and his organizations are watching — global trade wars, U.S.-China competition, regional conflicts and growing instances of political violence.
Wood shared that he anticipates the “old world order” with the U.S. at the center breaking down and a new world order forming that is more multipolar and centered around interests over values, diversification rather than globalization and more middle power multipolarity. For business leaders to build geopolitical resilience, they need to monitor, plan and act, based on all of these flashpoints, according to Wood.
Unlike Wood, Dr. Sam Potolicchio, President of the Preparing Global Leaders Forum, believes the U.S. will remain the leader of the world when it comes to the future of geopolitics, though he does advise business leaders to keep a close eye on the Russian War in Ukraine and China’s potential move on Taiwan.
Optimistically though, Potolicchio described event organizers as a vocation that is a true geopolitical act, because U.S.-based events can serve as an advocate for the country’s leadership in the world. He encouraged business leaders to engage in more serious and meaningful conversations that help to move industries and societies forward. This will be more important as more countries that have historically be U.S. allies view the country as a threat, according to Potolicchio.
The Global Shift to the Experience Economy
In an energetic session led by Jim Gilmore, Co-Founder and Co-Author, Strategic Horizons, LLP, the global shift to an experience-based economy and the opportunities that presents for event organizers was discussed. Gilmore shared that staging experiences and events will drive economies in the future as consumers spend more on experiences than they do on goods and services.
Gilmore’s three big tips for event organizers were to shift from providing input to generating output, meaning that events need to be the forum where real conversations and decisions occur; to go big; and to shift away from programs that focus heavily on presentations and lean into conversations and collaboration.
He also shared that the three most important sectors for this new economy will be healthcare, wealth management and education.
“With all the conversation around economic pressures and drivers for our industry, Jim Gilmore’s presentation on the Experience Economy was very timely. He made a statement that I thought was very powerful, which was around taking our events from Presentations to Conversations, meaning we need to stop talking at our industry stakeholders and start a conversation with them. Doubling down on experiential events is key to driving long-term community engagement,” said Brian Pagel, Executive Vice President of Business Development at Emerald and the 2025 Chairperson of the Board at CEIR.
Deeper Consumer Insights
Jennifer Berg, Vice President at SSRS, dove into consumer insights in a valuable session about where consumer attitudes and business strategy intersect. According to Berg, today’s consumer is more cautious, pragmatic and value-driven, which means for businesses to have a competitive advantage they need to understand the consumer mindset, be ready for consumers to change and be able to respond with agility and empathy.
When exploring what today’s consumers are looking for, Berg shared that consumers are looking for affordability first and value over volume. They are also prioritizing flexibility and responding well to trust and transparency. It is also important for business leaders to understand there is a generational divide, and that missing these important shifts will lead to declines while tracking them and staying adaptable will lead to business growth.
“Consumers are redefining value by prioritizing authenticity and meaningful experiences, making live events indispensable when they foster genuine connection, trust, and collaborative outcomes that digital platforms cannot replicate,” said Flanagan. “To remain competitive, organizers must design uniquely compelling in-person engagement while leveraging AI and year-round touchpoints. At the same time, leaders should shift from binary predictions to probabilistic forecasting to build resilience and prepare for multiple possible futures.”
Brainwave Exchange and Navigating Shifting Media Landscapes
In an interactive session led by Nicole O’Leary, Senior Vice President of Strategy and Creative at The Expo Group, roundtables discussed a variety of industry topics like navigating trade shows in a shift global economy, redefining events business models for the next generation and harnessing technology and data to create smarter trade shows.
In a conversation between Potolicchio and Nick Johnston, Publisher at Axios, the two discussed what is needed to stand out in our increasingly busy world, both in person and online. Reflecting on the success of Axios’ “Smart Brevity” approach, Johnston shared that in the war for attention leaders need to make things more interesting and consumable to stand out.
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